Tesla Valuation Concerns Trump Its Growth Prospects

By Chris Lange Published Mar 27, 12:35PM EDT

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The world has been enamored with the growth, and the cars, of Tesla Motors Inc. (NASDAQ: TSLA). CEO Elon Musk is and iconic visionary with a great message and with great products. So why is yet another research firm so cautious about its outlook in shares of Tesla?

The independent research firm Argus has issued a Hold rating on Tesla. Note that this analyst report may matter more than most other analyst reports from Wall Street. The reason is that Argus is truly independent research — the firm never will seek investment banking business from Tesla, so its analysts are free of any conflicts of interest.

Argus initiated coverage of Tesla with a Hold rating. The electric vehicle leader has achieved rapid growth in its first years as a public company. Still, Argus sees the Hold rating as appropriate and would like to see sustainable improvement in both operations and earnings before considering an upgrade.

Tesla expects to produce about 55,000 Model S and Model X vehicles in 2015, up more than 70% from 2014. It also plans to expand its electric-charging station network by more than 50% and to continue the development of new vehicle models, including the Model 3.

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Construction of Tesla’s battery production plant, or “Gigafactory,” in Nevada recently has begun. Management believes this will reduce battery pack costs by more than 30%. The lower battery cost will allow Tesla to price its third-generation vehicles at about $35,000, well below the price of current models.

In terms of its estimates, the firm said:

We are setting non-GAAP EPS estimates of $0.54 for 2015 (below the consensus estimate of $0.80) and $3.96 for 2016 (below the consensus of $3.89). Our estimates imply growth of more than 600% next year, as the company is still in a rapid expansion phase. Our long-term earnings growth rate forecast is 105%.

In the report, Argus further detailed:

Tesla shares are trading at a whopping 359-times our 2015 EPS forecast and at 49-times our 2016 forecast, reflecting investors’ high expectations for this innovative growth company. We note that these multiples are far above those of traditional auto manufacturers and of comparable tech companies, and that historical comparisons are meaningless given Tesla’s unprofitable history.

At the end of 2014, the total debt/cap ratio was 73.2%, up from 47.6% at the end of the previous year. That ratio is well above the average for auto manufacturers.

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Shares of Tesla were down almost 3% at $185.08 Friday, in a 52-week trading range of $177.22 to $291.42. The consensus analyst price target is $264.18.

About the Author Chris Lange →

Chris Lange is a writer for 24/7 Wall St., based in Houston. He has covered financial markets over the past decade with an emphasis on healthcare, tech, and IPOs. During this time, he has published thousands of articles with insightful analysis across these complex fields. Currently, Lange's focus is on military and geopolitical topics.

Lange's work has been quoted or mentioned in Forbes, The New York Times, Business Insider, USA Today, MSN, Yahoo, The Verge, Vice, The Intelligencer, Quartz, Nasdaq, The Motley Fool, Fox Business, International Business Times, The Street, Seeking Alpha, Barron’s, Benzinga, and many other major publications.

A graduate of Southwestern University in Georgetown, Texas, Lange majored in business with a particular focus on investments. He has previous experience in the banking industry and startups.