Tesla really has not done much to justify the fact that its shares trade at $274, near its all-time peak of $291 and up 130% in the past two years. As has been true since the manufacturer’s early days as a public corporation, the enticement is that Tesla eventually will sell hundreds of thousands of cars a year, and it will not face enough competition to force down what it charges for its cars or to cap the extraordinary growth of its unit sales.
Critics of the rise of the company shares almost always point to the tiny sales. In the most recent quarter, Tesla only had 11,507 Model S deliveries. While that is up 52% from the same quarter last year, it is fewer units than Ford Motor Co. (NYSE: F) sells of its F-150 pick-up in a month.
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Tesla’s share price increase will not only rely on the sales of its flagship model. Musk has promised a crossover Model X, which will enter production later this year. A single slip in that delivery date will bring Tesla’s shares crashing down like Musk’s SpaceX rocket did last month. While he said the reason for that crash would be hard to ascertain, the trigger for a sell-off in Tesla’s stock will be much more obvious.
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