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Can Tesla Stock Withstand a Secondary Share Sale?
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Founder and CEO Elon Musk has indicated that he may purchase approximately $20 million worth of the shares on offer, all of which are new shares being issued by the company. Underwriters for the offering include Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, JPMorgan, Deutsche Bank Securities, Bank of America Merrill Lynch and Wells Fargo Securities. The underwriters have an option to purchase an additional 315,000 shares.
According to the filing, Tesla plans to use the net proceeds of the offer to “accelerate the growth of our business in the U.S. and internationally.” That acceleration extends to the company’s stores, service centers, Supercharger network, the Tesla Energy business, the development and production of the company’s announced Model 3, the Tesla Gigafactory and other general corporate purposes. In other words, for whatever the company needs.
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Following the offering, the company projects 129.2 million shares outstanding (129.5 million if the underwriters exercise their option in full). That total does not include 20.5 million options, 1.76 million shares of restricted stock and 4.36 million shares available through the company’s share-based compensation program.
The company’s second-quarter earnings results were just okay, but the company indicated that its delivery total for 2015 may slip to 50,000 units from an original total of 55,000. Margins were also lower than expected as the selling price declined. Third-quarter pricing is expected to decline by more than 1% as deliveries shift to the lower priced models of the company’s vehicles.
Tesla expects to ship a “small number” of its new Model X crossover by the end of the third quarter and projects demand in 2016 at 1,600 to 1,800 per week, up about 45% compared with 2015 production.
Demand for Tesla’s stock seems to outstrip demand for the company’s cars. This secondary offering likely will be completed at or near Tuesday’s closing price just because institutional investors cannot seem to get enough. Barring a major miss on delivery of the Model X or some other hugely negative event, Tesla’s ability to raise capital without seriously diluting valuation should be safe.
The stock traded up 1.6% in Thursday’s premarket, after closing previously at $238.17, up 0.3% for the day. The stock’s 52-week range is $181.40 to $291.42 and the consensus price target is $286.00.
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