North American Automakers’ 2015 Production Near a Record 18 Million

For the past several months, most estimates for the seasonally adjusted annual rate of light vehicle (cars, pickups, SUVs) sales in the United States for 2015 have been hovering around 18 million units. To sell that many vehicles, automakers must first build them, and according to WardsAuto, total North American vehicle production will increase from about 17.96 million units in 2015 to 18.2 million units in 2016.

Total vehicle production in 2015 is 1.1% higher than 2014 production and is on track to break the current production record of 17.66 million units posted in 2000. In 2015, North American production totaled 17.44 million light vehicles and 515,000 trucks, and the projected volume of light vehicles will beat the 2000 production record of 17.16 million units.

Total sales, including imports from Europe and Asia, in North America for 2015 are estimated at 21.2 million units, and WardsAuto expects that total to rise to 21.5 million in 2016. Some 17.7 million light vehicles and 490,000 medium- and heavy-duty trucks comprise the 18.2 million North American-built units.

Higher production in 2016 is partly due to new manufacturing facilities that will come on line next year. Kia and Volkswagen are opening new plants in Monterrey and San Jose Chiapa, Mexico, respectively, next year, and Honda is opening an Ohio assembly plant for its Acura NSX luxury sports car.
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WardsAuto also notes that 2016 North American production may start slow as both General Motors and Fiat Chrysler upgrade some plants and change others to produce new products.

Another drag on production is related to rising demand for vehicles that are not built in North America:

Relatively weak demand for cars is limiting production in North America. Conversely, while surging demand is a boon to North American truck output, much of the demand for [crossover utility vehicles] CUVs is being fed from overseas plants, including several domestically produced trucks being dual-sourced from plants in Japan and South Korea due to capacity constraints.

A third problem is that strong sales of trucks has about maxed out North American production capacity. If U.S. gasoline prices remain at around $2 a gallon or less, sales penetration for light trucks could rise from a record 56% in 2015 to more than 60% in 2016.