Electric vehicle (EV) company Rivian Automotive Inc. (NASDAQ: RIVN) wants to be the next Tesla, or at least a smaller but financially successful version. The stock market has made a heavy bet against that. Rivian’s stock is now down 66% in the past year and still falling. As large legacy car companies like Ford struggle to sell EVs, so do the small EV start-ups. The only winner at this point is Tesla, the shares of which are higher by 56% in the past year, well ahead of the S&P 500’s jump of 22% over the same period.

EV sales growth rates are slowing. Around the world, the stories differ. EV sales fell by about a third in the United States in December. They continue to grow rapidly in China. The world’s top EV company is no longer Tesla. It is China’s BYD. (See the 15 worst-selling electric vehicles last year.)

Rivian will not report its most recent quarterly numbers until February 21. They will likely show that Rivian sells only a few thousand cars monthly.

Rivian has tried to strengthen its executive bench. Most recently, Jonas Reinke was just added to oversee Rivian’s new EV platforms, including R2 and R3. He earlier worked at Apple and Porsche.

Rivian management should be concerned about Ford’s decision to cut production of its F-150 Lightning pickup, the sales of which should be strong because the gasoline-powered version is America’s top-selling vehicle. It sold over 750,000 last year in the United States. Any driver who has owned one of the legacy F-150s and wants to change to an electric one is part of a huge universe that already owns the brand.

Rivian’s R1T is a direct Lightning rival.

Last year, Rivian produced 57,232 vehicles, ahead of industry expectations of 54,000. However, in the third quarter, it lost $1.4 billion on revenue of $1.3 billion. Wall Street believes that pace is not sustainable. Not even close.

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