CPI Puts Balance Between Inflation & Deflation Cases

The Labor Department has just released its data on retail inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index.  This was the December 2011 level and the figure came to +0.1% on the headline CPI and also +0.1% on the core-CPI.  Both figures were rounded down. Bloomberg had rates expected at +0.1% on the headline CPI and also +0.1% on the core CPI which cuts out the more volatile food and energy components.

Today’s data showed that the energy component was down by -1.3% ad the food component was up by about +0.2% for the month.  Inflation is not alive and well, and the news does little to stoke the fuel of the deflation camp as well.

Yesterday’s data on wholesale inflation measured by the Producer Price Index should have telegraphed that today’s news was not going to hold any major surprises.  As suppliers generally have to endure months of higher prices before passing price hikes on to the retail level, this is setting up the tone for low inflation expectations in the weeks and the coming few months ahead.

JON C. OGG