Analyst Sees Over 25% Upside in Campbell Soup

Campbell Soup Co. (NYSE: CPB) has enjoyed a solid 2015, with gains up to Monday’s closing bell of 22% on a total return basis. The soup and canned and packaged-foods maker now is also challenging what may soon be all-time highs on a long-term chart back to the 1990s. One firm on Wall Street is now projecting that new all-time highs are headed the way of Campbell Soup.

Argus, a truly independent research firm that has no conflicts of interest of the traditional Wall Street firms, has just upgraded Campbell Soup’s shares to Buy from Hold, and it has an official price target of $65.00. Campbell Soup hit a multiyear high of $53.90 on Tuesday morning, and the consensus analyst price target is only $50.55. What also stands out here is that this $65 price target is a full $10.00 per share higher than any other registered analyst target price in the Thomson Reuters universe.

Sometimes you have to wonder why one analyst becomes so bullish after such a great period of gains. In the case of Argus, this call is following Campbell Soup’s acquisitions of Bolthouse Farms, Plum Organics and Garden Fresh Gourmet. The Argus report signals that Campbell Soup is shifting its product mix toward faster growth areas of the packaged foods market. The firm also believes that management is focused on lowering costs and using the savings to invest further in its core brands.

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Argus now expects solid earnings growth in the coming years for Campbell Soup. The firm’s research report said:

We are raising our FY16 EPS estimate from $2.54 to $2.84 and our FY17 estimate from $2.72 to $3.04. We believe that the company’s cost savings initiatives and ability to raise prices warrant a higher P/E multiple. Applying a multiple of 23, in line with the average for four other food and beverage companies in our coverage group, to our Fiscal 2016 earnings estimate, we obtain a value of $65 per share.

Campbell recently reported first-quarter net sales of $2.2 billion, down 2.3% from last year. That was actually in line with consensus expectations and reflected foreign exchange headwinds and flat organic sales. Organic revenue benefited from lower promotional spending and a 1% price increase, but that was hurt by a 2% decline in volume. Still, earnings beat expectations due to gross margins and operating income being boosted by lower marketing and selling expense.

Campbell Soup shares are currently valued at 18.4 times the Argus revised fiscal 2016 EPS estimate and 17.2 times the fiscal 2017 forecast. That is within a five-year historical range of 13.5 to 21.1 times earnings. Quite simply, Argus is arguing that the company’s cost savings initiatives and its ability to raise prices warrant a higher forward P/E multiple. The report concludes:

The average forward multiple for four other food and beverage companies that we cover is 23. Applying this multiple to our FY16 estimate points to a value for CPB of $65 per share. Our target price of $65, combined with the dividend, implies a potential return of nearly 27% from current levels.

Campbell Soup shares were last seen up 2.7% at $53.65 in Tuesday’s morning session. The stock has a new 52-week range of $42.70 to $53.90.

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