Vistra

VST Q1 2025 Earnings

Reported May 7, 2025 at 3:00 AM ET · SEC Source

Q1 25 EPS

$N/A

Est. $0.68

Q1 25 Revenue

$3.93B

BEAT +4.18%

Est. $3.78B

vs S&P Since Q1 25

-22.1%

TRAILING MARKET

VST +6.3% vs S&P +28.4%

Market Reaction

Did VST Beat Earnings? Q1 2025 Results

Vistra delivered a tale of two results in Q1 2025, posting a GAAP net loss of $268 million while its underlying operating performance told a meaningfully stronger story. Revenue of $3.93 billion topped consensus estimates of $3.78 billion by 4.18%, r… Read more Vistra delivered a tale of two results in Q1 2025, posting a GAAP net loss of $268 million while its underlying operating performance told a meaningfully stronger story. Revenue of $3.93 billion topped consensus estimates of $3.78 billion by 4.18%, rising 40.8% year-over-year from $3.05 billion, with the incremental contribution from the Energy Harbor acquisition adding two additional months of results and fueling a surge in Ongoing Operations Adjusted EBITDA to $1.24 billion, up $430 million from the year-ago quarter. The GAAP loss, which widened from a $268 million loss the prior year, was driven largely by unrealized mark-to-market losses on derivative hedging positions as forward energy prices climbed, an accounting headwind that obscured the company's robust cash generation, with operating cash flow nearly doubling to $599 million. Shares have climbed roughly 31% over the past month as investors focused on the operational strength rather than the accounting noise. Vistra reaffirmed its full-year 2025 Adjusted EBITDA guidance of $5.50 billion to $6.10 billion and maintained its 2026 midpoint opportunity above $6 billion, with approximately 100% of 2025 generation volumes already hedged.

Key Takeaways

  • Strong retail performance with growth in both volume and customer count year-over-year
  • Higher wholesale power prices
  • Inclusion of two additional months of Energy Harbor results
  • Commercial availability of approximately 95% across generation fleet
  • Comprehensive hedging program supporting earnings stability
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VST YoY Financials

Q1 2025 vs Q1 2024, source: SEC Filings

“The Vistra team kicked off 2025 with another strong quarter of business performance. We reliably produced electricity during multiple winter storms across the country, delivering the energy our customers needed. Our plants achieved commercial availability of approximately 95% while our retail business grew in both volume and customer count year-over-year. These results, which continue to be supported by our comprehensive hedging program, are evidence of the resiliency of our business, even with the volatility in today's markets. With the strong first quarter results, we are reaffirming our 2025 guidance range and have continued confidence in the long-term earnings power of our company.”

— Jim Burke, Q1 2025 Earnings Press Release