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Vistra

VST Q4 2025 Earnings

Reported Feb 26, 2026 at 2:00 AM ET · SEC Source

Q4 25 EPS

$N/A

Est. $1.33

Q4 25 Revenue

N/A

Est. $5.54B

vs S&P Since Q4 25

-16.8%

TRAILING MARKET

VST -12.3% vs S&P +4.5%

Full Year 2025 Results

FY 25 Revenue

$17.74B

Market Reaction

Did VST Beat Earnings? Q4 2025 Results

Vistra Corp closed out fiscal 2025 with a record operational performance, even as headline GAAP figures clouded the picture, full-year net income fell to $944.00 million from $2.81 billion in 2024, largely the result of an $808.00 million unrealized … Read more Vistra Corp closed out fiscal 2025 with a record operational performance, even as headline GAAP figures clouded the picture, full-year net income fell to $944.00 million from $2.81 billion in 2024, largely the result of an $808.00 million unrealized pre-tax hedging loss tied to rising forward commodity prices rather than any deterioration in the underlying business. Strip away that timing effect, and the story looks markedly different: Ongoing Operations Adjusted EBITDA reached $5.91 billion, while Adjusted Free Cash Flow before Growth topped $3.59 billion, both clearing the midpoints of original guidance. The results were underpinned by a series of transformative deals, including a 20-year power purchase agreement with Amazon Web Services for up to 1,200 MW of carbon-free nuclear power and the closing of a 2,600-MW natural gas acquisition from Lotus Infrastructure Partners. Looking ahead, management's 2026 Adjusted EBITDA outlook of $6.80 billion to $7.60 billion signals continued expansion, with analysts at TD Cowen lifting their price target in response. Wall Street had been modeling Q4 EPS of $1.33 and revenue of $5.54 billion heading into the print.

Key Takeaways

  • • Inclusion of two additional months of Energy Harbor assets in 2025
  • • Two months of owning Lotus assets contributed to full-year results
  • • Higher retail margins from favorable supply costs
  • • Record Ongoing Operations Adjusted EBITDA of $5,912 million exceeded guidance midpoint by ~$112 million
  • • Ongoing Operations Adjusted FCFbG of $3,592 million exceeded guidance midpoint by ~$292 million
  • • Full-year GAAP Net Income decline driven by $808 million unrealized pre-tax hedging losses

VST Forward Guidance & Outlook

For 2026, Vistra guided Ongoing Operations Adjusted EBITDA of $6.8 billion to $7.6 billion and Ongoing Operations Adjusted FCFbG of $3.925 billion to $4.725 billion, excluding any potential impact from the Cogentrix acquisition. The 2027 Ongoing Operations Adjusted EBITDA midpoint opportunity remains at $7.4 billion to $7.8 billion, excluding estimated impact from Cogentrix or Meta PPAs. As of February 18, 2026, Vistra has hedged approximately 100% of expected generation volumes for 2026, approximately 84% for 2027, and approximately 58% for 2028. The 2026 guidance implies net income of $3.01 billion to $3.64 billion and cash from operations of $5.833 billion to $6.633 billion on a consolidated basis.

24/7 Wall St

VST YoY Financials

Q4 2025 vs Q4 2024, source: SEC Filings

“I am proud of the 2025 performance of our Vistra team – this was truly a transformational year for our company. With our One Team mindset, we achieved several strategic milestones, including a 20-year power purchase agreement with AWS for up to 1,200 MW of carbon-free power at our Comanche Peak Nuclear Power Plant; the announcement and successful closing of our acquisition of the 2,600-MW gas portfolio from Lotus in just five months; commissioning of the 200-MW Oak Hill Solar Facility on our retired and reclaimed coal mine site, which includes a PPA also with AWS; significant construction progress at our Pulaski and Newton solar facilities in Illinois; execution of uprates across our Texas gas fleet; commencement of construction on two natural gas units totaling 860 MW at our Permian Basin plant, tripling its existing capacity; and TXU Energy becoming the top-rated large retail energy provider in the Texas Public Utility Commission rankings. In addition to this meaningful growth, the team also delivered a record year financially, further demonstrating the strength and consistency of our integrated business model.”

— Jim Burke, Q4 2025 Earnings Press Release

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