The time had to come when the share of the Apple (AAPL) Mac OS would begin to spike. There are too many Macs being sold and the growth rate of the Apple product is running better than improvements from most PC companies like Dell (DELL) and Hewlett-Packard (HPQ).
And, what was forecast has come true. According to Fortune "Apple’s share of the operating system market grew 5.69% in May to hit a record 7.80%, while Windows in all its flavors dropped half a basis point to 91.17%. That’s a record low for Microsoft (MSFT)."
At the current rate of growth, it is not hard to imagine that the Mac OS could have 10% of the market by the end of 2008.
Where is the limit? Because corporations are uneasy about the expenses of supporting two OSs, Mac sales into mid and large-sized companies are likely to stay extremely small. That leaves the consumer market. Companies like Dell are beginning to defend their turf by launching new and more attractive machines. The recent Dell quarterly report showed that its laptop sales were up 48%.
Will the Mac OS keep gaining market share? Yes. But, its growth likely to slow considerably during 2009.
Douglas A. McIntyre
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