The brokerage firm considers its long-term negative bias on GoPro to be intact and stronger than ever. At the same time, it believes that the market opportunity for cameras remains limited and the replacement cycle will be long.
However, Oppenheimer is changing its near-term thesis based on the continued shipment growth in 2015 and potentially in 2016. Though GoPro is not yet a global brand, the firm believes deeper penetration in Europe, the Middle East and Africa (EMEA) (mostly Western Europe) and initial entrance in East Asia can deliver year-over-year growth for the company in 2015. Without notable near-term headwinds in sight, Oppenheimer upgrades GoPro to a Perform rating.
GoPro at its core is a marketing company. Its very successful branding effort, in Oppenheimer’s view, will generate substantial appeal to first-time buyers in under-penetrated markets such as EMEA and some parts of Asia.
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The digital camera and camcorder markets are expected to shrink as smartphone cameras become better and reach more people every year. Oppenheimer also believes that the convenience of mobile handsets will trump standalone recording devices in the long term.
The long-term success of a consumer product depends not only on the content that the product itself generates, but also the product itself. The brokerage firm views GoPro’s cameras as seriously lagging in terms of hardware/software user interface, services and technological capabilities.
According to Oppenheimer, GoPro’s current revenue composition, when compared with other major consumer electronics companies, proves that there is substantial potential for year-over-year unit shipment growth in the near term.
The brokerage firm gave its bottom line as:
In the long-term, we believe the addressable market for GoPro’s cameras is limited, if not shrinking under competition (drones). And improving smartphone camera capability will seal general consumer market from GoPro’s reach. We believe GoPro’s lack on product expertise from delivering long-term growth.
Shares of GoPro were up 2.4% to $51.29 Monday morning. The stock has a consensus analyst price target of $66.71 and a 52-week trading range of $28.65 to $98.47.
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