Based on GDP figures and June numbers out of retailers including Wal-Mart (WMT), the tax rebate program helped the economy for about 30 days. July retail numbers seem to show that the effect did not go much beyond that. Economist Martin Feldstein recently wrote "Recent government statistics show that only between 10% and 20% of the rebate dollars were spent. The rebates added nearly $80 billion to the permanent national debt but less than $20 billion to consumer spending."
Feldstein may be off. When it comes to really large numbers, economists usually are. But, he is not off by a factor of two or three.
Tax rebates sent out by the US government totaled something above $100 billion.It helped the economy for a remarkably short time. That may be a warning sign of how deep a recession the economy is already in, a recession which probably worsened around mid-year. The present situation could do more damage to already badly damaged industries, particularly retail, airlines, and autos. The stocks prices for companies in these sectors reflects the inevitability of things getting worse.
The federal government could solve many of these problems by making the rebate program monthly instead of having it be a one-time things. It might bankrupt the government, but it would save a lot of companies and jobs.
Douglas A. McIntyre