Durable Goods for the month of September did come in positive, but under expectations. As a reminder, this is the most volatile of all of the large economic numbers. Orders came in at +1% vs. consensus estimates of +1.5% from Dow Jones and +1.5% from Bloomberg. On an ex-Transportation basis the report was +0.9% and it was +0.5% on an ex-Defense basis. The figures for August were unrevised at -2.6%. As this was in-line ‘enough’ and positive on all fronts, there is really not much time that needs to be spent here. One issue to watch is unfilled manufacturers’ orders as a sign of future demand, and that number fell by -0.4% and marks at least 12 straight consecutive negative reports. Frankly, this report as a whole can be taken as a glass half-empty or half-full.
JON C. OGG
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