A day after the monthly ADP survey showed a private sector job loss of 23,000 compared to a predicted 40,000 gain, employment consulting firm, Challenger Gray, said employers cut 67,611 jobs last month. The figures for the first quarter were more encouraging, Challenger said. Numbers for January through March totalled 181,183 lay-offs compared to 578,510 in the same period in 2009. Weekly jobless claims dropped 6,000 to 438,000 compared to consensus number of 443,000. It was cold comfort compared to the balance of the data about March
But, the ADP and Challenger numbers indicate that after an improvement in the unemployment picture in January and February, March employment numbers began to decline again. The projection of 140,000 jobs to be added to the US labor force is based on the BLS report which comes out tomorrowtomorrow, according to consensus estimates, is surely not certain based on these numbers.
This news comes within a week after the President signed a $17.6 billion jobs bill. Congress is also considering another extension of job insurance and medical benefits.
So far, the recession has caused the loss of 7.2 million jobs, and the Administration $787 billion stimulus package may have slowed the rate of attrition, but it has not begun to reverse it.
GDP still remains dependent on consumer spending for two-thirds of its rise or fall. Unemployment is considered the most critical factor to the consumer spending drop that caused the recession’s plague. If the jobless numbers begin to deteriorate again, there will be serious concern whether the recovery will be lost. Many economists, the credit ratings agencies, and a growing number of politicians say that deficit spending must begin to drop. That would mean that money spent to reverse the decline in jobs would not be available.
The March jobs picture may be the beginning of a trend that America cannot afford to live through for a second time, if there is any hope of a recovery this year.
Douglas A. McIntyre
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