What Does France Do About Nuclear Power?

France gets almost 80% of its electricity from nuclear power. It is also the world’s largest net exporter of electric power with Italy, the UK, Belgium, and Germany as its largest customers.

While Japan shuts down many of its reactors along with Germany and China, France has a problem it cannot easily solve. The US and other nations may inspect their reactors for trouble. This would cause temporary shutdowns. France probably cannot even do that, at least not for long

French Premier François Fillon says that he supports a temporary period of inspections of French plants. That would cause rolling closures. He may not get much political support, especially from elected officials in regions which rely on nuclear energy for power or the income from its export. France is trapped by its own considerable success. Before the Japanese earthquake and tsunami,  many other countries cited France as an example of power independence. Even President Obama began to support nuclear energy as one way to ween Americans off their dependence on crude.

France will end up as an example of a country that puts its strategic interests ahead of what it perceived to be public safety. Such a decision would be ill-founded. France is not a part of the world that sits on major fault lines. The case for a nuclear problem in France would nave to be made based on terrorist attacks or human error. These are extremely improbable events.

The reaction to the trouble in Japan is an example of a pendulum which has swung too far from one side to another. The earthquake in Japan is a 1,000 year event. For counties which do not have earthquake problems, the odds are even longer.

China, Germany, and the US may have temporary plant closures and will go through the motions of inspecting those plants. Since they are already inspected on a regular schedule, nothing is likely to be found. The plants will be restarted. This will probably be followed by a moratorium on construction of new facilities which could last years. That is a mistake because it increases the possibility that oil production shortfalls or rising demand in places like China could increase crude prices high enough to drive the entire world back into a recession. That may not happen this year, but it is a risk that could last a long time. Another recession would plunge millions of people around the world into poverty especially if good prices remain high. Another recession could also push the US and its allies into a position in where their already troubled balance sheets may cause their borrowing costs to soar. That will inevitably cause problems that would range from higher taxes to deferred retirement for the aged.

France may close its plants for a short period. It won’t be for long. France can’t afford it. Over the long haul neither can the US, but that will not matter. Public opinion and politics often override what is sensible. That is about to happen here and throughout the rest of the developed world.

Douglas A> McIntyre