Chinese Exports Jump 10% in January — or Not

China’s economy grew by 7.7% in both 2013 and 2012, far more than in the United States or any other developed country, but the weakest growth in more than a decade for the world’s second-largest economy. For a country where double-digit growth was the norm for years, the past two years have been a cause for concern that global demand may be stalling.

Exports from China rose $126.7 billion in value and imports rose by 10% to $107.2 billion.

There is some doubt about the growth figures. An economist at the Royal Bank of Scotland Group in Hong Kong told Bloomberg News, “[W]e are also left with a nagging feeling that perhaps issues such as over-invoicing have risen sharply in intensity early this year.”

False invoices were used to disguise capital flows into and out of China in 2013, so the concern about over-invoicing is real.

Data from Hong Kong regarding trade with the mainland is significantly different from Chinese data, leading some to believe that China’s export numbers are exaggerated by fake exports. China’s exports to Hong Kong are reported by the government to be 70% higher than Hong Kong’s reported imports from the mainland.

The timing of this year’s Lunar New Year holiday could also have distorted the report, pulling imports and exports forward from February.