Does a Great 10-Year Treasury Auction Signal Trouble Ahead?

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By Jon C. Ogg Published
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If bonds are rallying, yields are dropping, often due to worries that the economy will slow down or that bonds will be more desirable than stocks. It does not always work out that way, but investors saw a surprise in the 10-year Treasury auction on Wednesday.

The Treasury’s $24 billion came with a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.63, meaning demand to buy at the auction was $2.62 for every $1 accepted. What stands out is that the 2.612% yield was the lowest at a 10-year Treasury auction since June of 2013.

Russian tensions must be helping here. Indirect bidders, a sign of foreign bank interest, took a high 49.3% of the auction. Direct bidders took 21.6% of the auction. The on-the-run Treasury yield was just above 2.58% after the auction.

Another driving force for Treasury demand was that Fed Chair Janet Yellen gave some added comfort to bond investors that they will get to enjoy very low interest rates for a considerable period. Watchers also heard Yellen signal that the end of quantitative easing and an eventual wind-down of the Fed’s balance sheet would remain orderly.

All things being equal, the low 10-year auction yield comes at a time when the jobs data is looking better and better, at the same time that gross domestic product was only up by 0.1%.

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Photo of Jon C. Ogg
About the Author Jon C. Ogg →

Jon Ogg has been a financial news analyst since 1997. Mr. Ogg set up one of the first audio squawk box services for traders called TTN, which he sold in 2003. He has previously worked as a licensed broker to some of the top U.S. and E.U. financial institutions, managed capital, and has raised private capital at the seed and venture stage. He has lived in Copenhagen, Denmark, as well as New York and Chicago, and he now lives in Houston, Texas. Jon received a Bachelor of Business Administration in finance at University of Houston in 1992. a673b.bigscoots-temp.com.

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