Chicago Fed Sees Positive National Economic Growth

Monday’s report was led by gains in production-related indicators, particularly the manufacturing sector. Three of the four broad categories of indicators in the CFNAI added positively to the index in May. Also, three of the four categories increased from April.

The index’s three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, the third consecutive reading above zero, decreased to +0.18 in May from +0.31 in April. This effectively suggests that growth in national economic activity was somewhat above its historical trend and suggests limited inflationary pressure over the coming year. The CFNAI Diffusion Index (also a three-month moving average) gained to +0.23 in May from +0.20 in April.

Some 52 of the 85 individual indicators made positive contributions to the CFNAI in May. The other 33 indicators made negative contributions. Fifty-five indicators improved from April to May, while 29 indicators deteriorated and one was unchanged. Of the indicators that improved, 17 made negative contributions.

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