Why Durable Goods Matters So Much on Friday – GDP Watch

Bloomberg has the new orders consensus as being a gain of 0.5%. The range from economists is -0.5% up to a gain o1.5%, so estimates are all over. If you back out transportation, the Bloomberg consensus is a gain of 0.7%. There is also a range of 0.3% to 1.8% for the month of June.

You will want to pay attention to the ex-defense and transportation capital goods spending. This is becoming the key metric for the core reading now.

We would warn readers that Durable Goods is often the most volatile of all major economic readings. The report is often way off of estimates, mainly because it doesn’t take more than a segment or two to be off on the orders in any given month.

You also have to consider that first quarter GDP was revised lower and lower, ultimately down to -2.9%. This means that the big ticket items from the durable goods report will have a big impact on GDP estimates, particularly with this covering June and with June being the last month of the quarter.

As far as looking back, Durable Goods orders were much weaker than expected for May, falling by 0.9 percent after rising by 0.8 percent in April.

Now consider that retail sales have not exactly been robust. There is a lot at stake here, and a weak Durable Goods report could lower expectations for GDP growth.