Empire Manufacturing Rises Much Slower Than Expected

The general business conditions index fell 11 points to 14.7 in August after hitting a four-year high in July. The consensus estimate from Bloomberg was all the way up at 20, and the range was 15 to 26 — so it undershot every economist’s expectation.

The new orders index was down nearly five points to 14.1. The shipments index increased by one point to 24.6, its highest level since March 2010. The labor market conditions index had mixed results with its employment index declining while hours worked increased.

Increased optimism raised the six month outlook for most indexes after it fell in the July survey. The index for future general business conditions increased 18 points to a total of 46.8, the highest reading for the index in 2.5 years. Future new orders increased 25 points to 50.4, and future shipments increased 30 points to 54.5.

The August survey marks the fourth consecutive quarter where business conditions have improved for New York manufacturers, albeit not as strong as expected.