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Economy

Will Labor Department Payrolls and Unemployment Report Meet Expectations?

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By Chris Lange Published
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On Friday morning, the U.S. Department of Labor will release its Employment Situation report for the month of October. Weekly jobless claims have been dropping throughout October, and ADP released a favorable report, so we are inclined to believe that the coming Employment Situation report will be favorable as well.

Bloomberg has a consensus estimate for nonfarm payrolls of 240,000, compared to the previous readings in September of 248,000 and to 180,000 in August. September’s revision will come out with the report, but looking back, net revisions for July and August were up 69,000.

Weekly jobless claims for the November 1 week fell by 10,000 to 278,000. This marks the seventh time in eight weeks that the four-week moving average has dropped. It currently reads at 279,000. Continuing claims also dropped to a 14-year low of 2.348 million.

Wednesday’s report from ADP projected that private sector employment increased by 230,000 jobs in October. The ADP National Employment Report comes from ADP’s actual payroll data, and it measures the change in total nonfarm private employment each month on a seasonally adjusted basis. Bloomberg expected 230,000 as well.

ALSO READ: ADP and TrimTabs Suggest Strong Payrolls From Labor Department

The ADP report suggested that small businesses added 102,000 jobs in October, followed by a gain of 122,000 for medium businesses and a gain of 5,000 from large businesses. Service-providing employment rose by 181,000 jobs in October, up from 176,000 in September. Expansion in trade, transportation and utilities grew by 47,000, versus September’s 37,000.

ADP payroll data represent 411,000 U.S. clients employing nearly 24 million workers in the United States. The September total of jobs added was revised from 213,000 to 225,000.

TrimTabs Investment Research estimated that the U.S. economy added a whopping 314,000 jobs in October. This would be up from 206,000 in September, making employment growth last month the highest since May 2010, when census-related hiring skewed the data. The TrimTabs data also showed that the economy has created an average of 215,000 jobs per month this year.

The unemployment rate is expected to hold consistent with its September rate of 5.9%, which also recorded a six-year low in the jobless rate.

Bloomberg is expecting an increase in hourly earnings of 0.2%, which is down from the previous month’s reading of 0.3%. Private payrolls are expected to be 235,000, compared to September’s 236,000.

ALSO READ: The 10 Worst States for Women

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About the Author Chris Lange →

Chris Lange is a writer for 24/7 Wall St., based in Houston. He has covered financial markets over the past decade with an emphasis on healthcare, tech, and IPOs. During this time, he has published thousands of articles with insightful analysis across these complex fields. Currently, Lange's focus is on military and geopolitical topics.

Lange's work has been quoted or mentioned in Forbes, The New York Times, Business Insider, USA Today, MSN, Yahoo, The Verge, Vice, The Intelligencer, Quartz, Nasdaq, The Motley Fool, Fox Business, International Business Times, The Street, Seeking Alpha, Barron’s, Benzinga, and many other major publications.

A graduate of Southwestern University in Georgetown, Texas, Lange majored in business with a particular focus on investments. He has previous experience in the banking industry and startups.

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