ADP and TrimTabs Suggest Strong Payrolls From Labor Department

Wednesday’s report from ADP projected that private sector employment rose by some 230,000 jobs in October. The ADP National Employment Report is derived from ADP’s actual payroll data, and it measures the change in total nonfarm private employment each month on a seasonally adjusted basis. Bloomberg was calling for 230,000 as well.

The ADP report suggested that small businesses added 102,000 jobs in October, followed by a gain of 122,000 for medium businesses and a gain of 5,000 from large businesses. Service-providing employment rose by 181,000 jobs in October, up from 176,000 in September. Expansion in trade, transportation and utilities grew by 47,000, versus September’s 37,000.

ADP payroll data represent 411,000 U.S. clients employing nearly 24 million workers in the United States. The September total of jobs added was revised from 213,000 to 225,000.

TrimTabs Investment Research estimated that the U.S. economy added a whopping 314,000 jobs in October. This would be up from 206,000 in September, making employment growth last month the highest since May 2010, when census-related hiring skewed the data. The TrimTabs data also showed that the economy has created an average of 215,000 jobs per month this year.

TrimTabs’ employment estimates are based on analysis of daily income tax deposits to the U.S. Treasury from the paychecks of the 140 million U.S. workers subject to withholding. The report said:

Stronger employment growth and a falling unemployment rate suggest the Fed will start raising rates next year. The key question is how much the Fed will be able to lift rates when total credit as a percentage of GDP is as high as it was when the financial crisis started.

Bloomberg has estimates for Friday’s nonfarm payrolls at 240,000 and 235,000 for the private sector payrolls.

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