Wednesday brought the first real economic view that may adjust the analyst and economist expectations for June’s payrolls report. ADP looked a bit more stable for the number, but TrimTabs data suggests that payrolls trends were the worst in a year.
ADP’s National Employment Report suggests that the U.S. economy’s private sector employment increased by 237,000 jobs in June over May. The ADP report is derived from ADP’s actual payroll data and aims to track the total nonfarm private employment each month on a seasonally adjusted basis.
Of the total U.S. nonfarm private employment projection of 237,000 added, small businesses were indicated to have added 120,000 people (with 1 to 19 employees adding 71,000 and 20 to 49 employees adding 49,000). The medium-size businesses of 50 to 499 employees were projected to add 86,000 payrolls. Large businesses were projected to have added about 32,000 payrolls, with businesses of 500 to 999 employees adding 27,000 people and those with 1,000 or more employees adding 5,000 people.
Of ADP’s total 237,000 added payrolls, the services sectors were shown to be up 225,000 and the goods-producing sector was shown to have added some 12,000.
TrimTabs Investment Research is less followed than ADP, but its numbers are based on its analysis of daily income tax deposits to the U.S. Treasury from the paychecks of the 142 million U.S. workers subject to withholding. TrimTabs projected that the U.S. economy added 190,000 jobs in June. While this is close to 200,000, it was the lowest reading in 12 months — and it broke a streak of 11 consecutive monthly gains exceeding 200,000.
TrimTabs said that the economy seems to have lost some of its momentum heading into summer. They noted:
We suspect the sharp rise in Treasury yields since mid-April, continuing strength in the U.S. dollar, and uncertainty related to the Greek debt crisis are putting a damper on economic activity.
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