Early Reports Set Low Expectations for Friday’s Employment Numbers

ADP reported that private sector employment payrolls rose by 139,000 jobs from January to February. The ADP National Employment Report is derived from ADP’s actual payroll data. It measures the change in total nonfarm private employment each month on a seasonally adjusted basis. Small businesses accounted for 59,000 of the gains, while medium-sized businesses added 35,000 jobs and large businesses added 44,000.

TrimTabs, which is generally more conservative in its reporting, said that it believes that the U.S. economy added between 125,000 and 155,000 jobs in February. The report showed that real-time tax data and key credit indicators are just not pointing to any growth acceleration. TrimTabs employment estimates are based on an analysis of daily income tax deposits to the U.S. Treasury from all salaried U.S. employees, and they are said to be historically more accurate than the initial estimates from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

The ADP and TrimTabs reports are setting the market up for low expectations on Friday’s Employment Situation report from the Labor Department. Bloomberg is calling for 150,000 non-farm payrolls and 165,000 private sector payrolls to have been added in February. The official unemployment rate is expected to be static at 6.6%.