Very Weak Durable Goods Could Cloud GDP Hopes

Those hoping that fourth-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) is going to look good on Friday are going to have to factor in what a dovish Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) statement said. They also will have to factor in a really bad durable goods report for the month of December.

This is the big-ticket items bought and sold in the economy, so it can influence GDP reports. One item needs to be considered before panic sets in: the durable goods reading is extremely volatile, and it can look bad even in a booming economy or great in a slowing economy. This durable goods report for December is one that looks crummy in a slowing economy.

New orders for manufactured durable goods in December fell by $12.0 billion, or by a whopping 5.1%, to $225.4 billion. This decrease, which is down four of the past five months, followed a 0.5% decrease in November. Bloomberg’s Econoday consensus estimate was for a gain of 0.2%, and the range was -3.0% to a gain of 1.5%.

Aircraft orders didn’t help at all, but unfortunately they were not the only cause of the problem. Civilian aircraft orders were down 29% in December.

Excluding transportation, the picture looks less bad. This reading was down 1.2%. Excluding defense, new orders decreased by 2.9%. Transportation equipment has now been down four of the past five months, and it led the drop with a 12.4% drop to $71.3 billion.
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Shipments of manufactured durable goods in December fell by $5.4 billion (2.2%) to $235.8 billion. This was after a 0.6% gain in November.

Inventories were up after five consecutive monthly decreases, rising by $2.1 billion (0.5%) to $397.9 billion. Transportation, which had previously seen three consecutive decreases, led the gains with a $1.8 billion (1.4%) pop to $131.8 billion.

The core reading for capital goods, which excludes the defense equipment orders and aircraft, were down by 4.3% in December after posting a drop of 1.1% in November.

Nondefense new orders for capital goods in December fell by $11.3 billion, down a sharp 15%, to $64.4 billion. Shipments decreased $5.3 billion or 6.6% to $74.7. Its unfilled orders fell by $10.3 billion (1.4%) to $742.8 billion, and inventories managed to rise by $1.2 billion (0.7%) to $175.9 billion.

Defense new orders for capital goods in December decreased $4.9 billion (34.4%) to $9.3 billion. Shipments increased by $0.4 billion (3.6%) to $10.2 billion.