Mixed Bag in Import and Export Prices for April

Thursday’s economic reports might have included a very disappointing weekly jobless claims report, but we have now also seen a mixed report on import and export price trends in the month of April. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that April’s price index for U.S. imports rose by 0.3% in April, following a 0.3% increase in March. U.S. export prices increased by 0.5% in April, after no change was reported in the previous month.

Bloomberg had the consensus estimates pegged at 0.6% on import prices and 0.0% on export prices.

The increases in import prices for April and March were led by higher fuel prices. Export prices were driven by gains in agricultural and nonagricultural prices in April.

Annualized numbers continue to look extremely weak for prices. Import prices were down 5.7% from April 2015, and export prices were down 5.0%. This was less of a drop from March on a year-over-year basis, with March import prices down 6.2% and export prices down 6.1%.
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Import prices with China were down by 1.9% year over year, and the European Union prices were down 1.6%.

The decline seen so far in 2016 in the U.S. dollar is acting as a serious factor here. This currency reversal, if it continues or remains, should act to lift import prices but also may drive international demand for U.S. goods and services.