Each and every month, the ADP National Employment Report covering private sector payrolls is used to get a bias toward the monthly U.S. Department of Labor report on the employment situation. ADP has reported that private sector employment increased by 173,000 jobs in the month of May.
The good news here is that this will mute expectations for a big surprise for Friday’s nonfarm and private payrolls from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). Bloomberg was calling for 175,000 jobs, and its Econoday range was listed as 105,000 to 205,000. Dow Jones expects 170,000.
Still, there could be a wild card. Verizon is not counted in the numbers by ADP. It should be known that many large companies have their own systems inside their human resources departments.
Total U.S. nonfarm private employment rising by 173,000 was broken down by the following business segments:
- Small businesses added 76,000 payrolls.
- Medium businesses added 63,000 payrolls.
- Large businesses added 34,000 payrolls.
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The report is derived from ADP’s actual payroll data. It aims to measure the change in total nonfarm private employment each month on a seasonally adjusted basis.
Bloomberg has the following consensus estimates for Friday’s payrolls and unemployment:
- Nonfarm payrolls at 158,000 (160,000 prior)
- Private sector payrolls at 150,000 (171,000 prior)
- Unemployment rate at 4.9% (5.0% prior)
- Average hourly earnings up 0.2% (last was up 0.3%)
- Average work week flat at 34.5 hours
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