Economists See No Recession Next Year, Forecast for Accelerated Growth

By Douglas A. McIntyre Updated Jan 12, 5:48AM EST · Published Dec 4, 6:35AM EST

Follow 24/7 Wall St. on Google

This post may contain links from our sponsors and affiliates, and Flywheel Publishing may receive compensation for actions taken through them.

Economists See No Recession Next Year, Forecast for Accelerated Growth — © Thinkstock

The National Association for Business Economics’ NABE Outlook is among the most carefully watched forecasts for economic growth. Its December survey shows that those questioned say a recession next year is highly unlikely. And the group revised most of its predictions for GDP improvement upward.

The survey includes a group of 51 professional forecasters. It was taken between November 6 and 15, 2017, and includes opinions on this year and next.

The primary finding from the research was:

The median forecasts for average annual inflation-adjusted gross domestic product growth (real GDP growth) are 2.2% for 2017 and 2.5% for 2018—compared with 2.2% and 2.4% in the September survey. On a fourth-quarter-to-fourth-quarter basis, real GDP growth is expected to be 2.5% in 2017 and 2.4% in 2018. The median forecast for fourth-quarter 2017 real GDP growth is 2.7%, higher than the September forecast of 2.5%.

[nativounit]

Among the main reasons are that tax cuts will stimulate the economy. The NABE is not the only group with such a forecast. Obviously, congressional supporters of a bill to cut taxes, as well as President Trump, view the results the same way. Ironically, the group surveyed said inflation would be low, not a normal set of circumstances during a recovery. The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index is expected to rise by 1.6% this quarter compared to the fourth quarter in 2016. The number for 2018 is expected to be 1.8%.

And a recession is not in the cards over the course of the next year. NABE Vice President Kevin Swift, CBE, chief economist, American Chemistry Council, said:

Panelists continue to believe that a recession is unlikely in 2018. Only 7% of respondents believe the peak of the current business cycle will occur by the end of next year. The survey panel is more optimistic about the risks to the economy than it was in September. Sixty percent of panelists believe the balance of risks to the economy through 2018 is weighted to the upside, while 33% believe the risks are weighted to the downside. In the September survey, the downside risks outweighed the upside risks by a margin of 48% to 43%.

It is hard to imagine things being much better, at least in terms of the economy.

[wallst_email_signup]

About the Author Douglas A. McIntyre →

Douglas A. McIntyre is the co-founder, chief executive officer and editor in chief of 24/7 Wall St. and 24/7 Tempo. He has held these jobs since 2006.

McIntyre has written thousands of articles for 24/7 Wall St. He is an expert on corporate finance, the automotive industry, media companies and international finance. He has edited articles on national demographics, sports, personal income and travel.

His work has been quoted or mentioned in The New York Times, The Wall Street Journal, Los Angeles Times, The Washington Post, NBC News, Time, The New Yorker, HuffPost USA Today, Business Insider, Yahoo, AOL, MarketWatch, The Atlantic, Bloomberg, New York Post, Chicago Tribune, Forbes, The Guardian and many other major publications. McIntyre has been a guest on CNBC, the BBC and television and radio stations across the country.

A magna cum laude graduate of Harvard College, McIntyre also was president of The Harvard Advocate. Founded in 1866, the Advocate is the oldest college publication in the United States.

TheStreet.com, Comps.com and Edgar Online are some of the public companies for which McIntyre served on the board of directors. He was a Vicinity Corporation board member when the company was sold to Microsoft in 2002. He served on the audit committees of some of these companies.

McIntyre has been the CEO of FutureSource, a provider of trading terminals and news to commodities and futures traders. He was president of Switchboard, the online phone directory company. He served as chairman and CEO of On2 Technologies, the video compression company that provided video compression software for Adobe’s Flash. Google bought On2 in 2009.