Is former Vice President Joe Biden tied with Senators Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders for the lead in the race to be the Democratic presidential nominee? Or is Biden way ahead? Based on a well-regarded poll that surveys over 17,000 registered voters each week. Biden as a huge double-digit lead.
The Morning Consult poll has Biden at 33%, up two points from last week. He was followed by Sanders at 20%, flat with last week. Warren was at 15%, also flat with last week. The researchers who conducted the survey, wrote, “Biden’s lead holds steady with Sanders and Warren trailing by double digits. The state of the race has remained unchanged in recent weeks –even as candidates begin to drop out.”
Monday, the results of a Monmouth University poll showed Sanders and Warren with 20% each based on “the presidential nomination preferences of registered Democrats and Democratic-leaning voters across the country.” Biden’s figure was 19%. The poll was based on interviews with 800 adults age 18 and older. It was conducted between August 16 and 20, 2019, and shows the three candidates in a statistical dead heat. The takeaway from the Monmouth researchers was that “Compared to Monmouth’s June poll, these results represent an increase in support for both Sanders (up from 14%) and Warren (up from 15%) and a significant drop for Biden (down from 32%).”
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Why such a vast difference? It’s hard to tell. The Morning Consult poll is done on a daily cycle and reported weekly. The current survey was in the field from August 19 to 25, 2019. The sample universe is different. While the Monmouth poll included registered Democrats and Democratic-leaning voters, the Morning Consult poll was among “registered voters who indicate they may vote in the Democratic primary or caucuses.” That would seem to be a marginal difference, based on the description of the two universes.
Based on poll results tracked by statistics site FiveThirtyEight, the Monmouth poll is a clear outlier with results far different from recent polls from Harris, CNN and Fox News. Does that mean the Monmouth poll is wrong? Or is it too close to call?
Voter turnout is not the same in every state. 24/7 Wall St. recently analyzed voter turnout by state and you can look at yours as part of the article’s conclusions.
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