There is a notion to consider here, and that is that “This time it is different.” That may very well be the case. For starters, we have many more active traders than we used to chasing news faster. Getting live reports in 1989 was not the same as getting live reports followed by live analysis from 30 sources now. We have many more investing and trading models than we used to. We now have a Democratic agenda rather than a Republican agenda, and that is of course a factor in regulation and perhaps ultimately what the fines and penalties may be outside of any civilian lawsuits. We now have what may be stricter environmental regulation. But the one issue to consider is that BP may not be liable for endless sums of money.
So here is the price comparisons so you can see the moves, with Exxon being first and BP being second:
| EXXON | Low | Close | DJIA |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5/8/1989 | $42.13 | $42.38 | 2,376.47 |
| 5/5/1989 | $42.13 | $42.25 | 2,381.96 |
| 5/4/1989 | $42.25 | $42.38 | 2,384.90 |
| 5/3/1989 | $41.88 | $42.50 | 2,393.70 |
| 5/2/1989 | $42.50 | $42.50 | 2,402.86 |
| 5/1/1989 | $42.50 | $42.88 | 2,414.96 |
| 4/28/1989 | $43.00 | $43.13 | 2,418.80 |
| 4/27/1989 | $42.88 | $43.25 | 2,418.99 |
| 4/26/1989 | $43.00 | $43.13 | 2,389.10 |
| 4/25/1989 | $43.88 | $43.88 | 2,386.85 |
| 4/24/1989 | $44.50 | $44.50 | 2,402.68 |
| 4/21/1989 | $43.75 | $44.63 | 2,409.46 |
| 4/20/1989 | $43.00 | $43.88 | 2,377.38 |
| 4/19/1989 | $43.00 | $43.50 | 2,386.91 |
| 4/18/1989 | $42.38 | $43.25 | 2,379.40 |
| 4/17/1989 | $41.88 | $42.13 | 2,337.79 |
| 4/14/1989 | $41.75 | $42.00 | 2,337.06 |
| 4/13/1989 | $41.88 | $42.00 | 2,296.00 |
| 4/12/1989 | $41.63 | $42.00 | 2,319.65 |
| 4/11/1989 | $41.50 | $41.75 | 2,311.58 |
| 4/10/1989 | $42.00 | $42.00 | 2,301.87 |
| 4/7/1989 | $42.50 | $42.75 | 2,304.80 |
| 4/6/1989 | $43.00 | $43.00 | 2,291.97 |
| 4/5/1989 | $43.00 | $43.50 | 2,304.80 |
| 4/4/1989 | $42.75 | $43.25 | 2,298.20 |
| 4/3/1989 | $43.13 | $43.25 | 2,304.80 |
| 3/31/1989 | $42.88 | $43.88 | 2,293.62 |
| 3/30/1989 | $43.13 | $43.50 | 2,281.34 |
| 3/29/1989 | $43.50 | $43.63 | 2,281.52 |
| 3/28/1989 | $44.13 | $44.13 | 2,275.54 |
| 3/27/1989 | $43.88 | $44.50 | 2,257.86 |
| 3/23/1989 | $44.38 | $44.50 | 2,243.04 |
| 3/22/1989 | $44.63 | $44.88 | 2,263.21 |
| BP | Low | Close | DJIA |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5/4/2010 | $48.44 | $51.20 | 10,926.77 |
| 5/3/2010 | $47.35 | $50.19 | 11,151.83 |
| 4/30/2010 | $51.36 | $52.15 | 11,008.61 |
| 4/29/2010 | $51.88 | $52.56 | 11,167.32 |
| 4/28/2010 | $56.64 | $57.34 | 11,045.27 |
| 4/27/2010 | $56.21 | $56.33 | 10,991.99 |
| 4/26/2010 | $57.90 | $57.91 | 11,205.03 |
| 4/23/2010 | $58.75 | $59.88 | 11,204.28 |
| 4/22/2010 | $58.86 | $59.55 | 11,134.29 |
| 4/21/2010 | $59.84 | $60.09 | 11,124.92 |
| 4/20/2010 | $60.29 | $60.48 | 11,117.06 |
| 4/19/2010 | $58.81 | $59.48 | 11,092.05 |
| 4/16/2010 | $59.33 | $59.88 | 11,018.66 |
There is a huge difference here that we would note. Even if this has bottomed out, there is almost no way to expect that the 12 day move down in Exxon that saw a reversal back up to the original $44.50 mark from before the accident will be seen. About all we would pick is half of the loss for a recovery mark as the easy money, then after that it will require patience and slicker trading. And then there is still that notion that this time things really may be different. An 18% drop from highs is substantial when you consider that BP is worth almost $160 billion even after the drop we have seen.
BP plc (BP) is up 1.5% at $51.13 today in its ADRs,and that is on almost 20 million shares in the first 1 hour and 45 minutes. The ADRs traded 156 million shares on Monday, and have traded over 50 million in the last four days outside of that. BloggingStocks.com highlights a broker upgrade on the recent weakness.
Exxon Mobil Corp. (NYSE: XOM) is down 0.2% at $66.34 on the day.
JON C. OGG
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