The July forecast from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) calls for the price of a gallon of gasoline to fall from a second-quarter average of $3.68 to an average of $3.64 in the third quarter. The full-year average is expected to come to $3.54 a gallon, compared with $3.51 a gallon in 2013. The full-year forecast average is nine cents higher since the June forecast was published.

The EIA’s latest forecast, issued Tuesday, calls for 2014 West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices to rise to an average of $100.98 a barrel from a June estimate of $95.60. In 2013, the average per barrel price for WTI was $97.91.

Brent crude is now forecast to average $109.55 for the full year, up from an estimate of $104.88 a barrel last month. The 2013 full-year average was $108.64.

The agency cites the unrest in Iraq as being responsible for the rise in Brent prices, and it notes that this is the 12th consecutive month that the average Brent spot price has ranged between $107 and $112 per barrel.

U.S. crude oil production is forecast to average 8.3 million barrels a day in 2014, up from 7.4 million barrels a day in 2013. The EIA also predicts production of 9.3 million barrels a day in 2015, the highest production level since 1972.

The agency also noted that the growth in domestic production has cut the share of imported oil needed to meet U.S. demand from 60% in 2005 to an average of 33% in 2013. The EIA expects the import percentage to drop to 22% in 2015, the lowest level since 1970.

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