Too Many Factors at Once Weigh on Oil Prices

Greece’s “no” vote has been cited as one of the key issues. Still, it is important to understand that Greece is tiny on this front. What Greece has done is hurt the value of the euro, sending the U.S. dollar up. Ultimately, this hurts foreign demand.

Perhaps the biggest issue long term is that the potential Iran nuclear pact may be known this week. While it is still too soon to expect that a deal is an assured outcome, the powers that be seem to keep indicating that a deal of some sort will come about with Iran. This means a nearly instant excess supply of a commodity that is already in oversupply versus daily global demand.

Does it matter that China imposed some emergency measures to support its stock markets? Or does it matter that a higher U.S. oil rig count was seen for the first time in six months? Both play into economic demand and actual supply.

Crude was down 6.1% on Monday, which was down $3.39 at $53.54 in mid-afternoon trading on Monday. This is actually down 10% or so in just the past three full trading days.

Seasonal demand and some technical oversold readings may act as the only real support for oil. If Monday’s 6% drop in oil holds, then it will be the biggest drop in nearly three months. After key technical levels are taken out, then traders begin to wonder where the next support level is. Unfortunately, if the $53 level does not hold, then the next two support levels do not really come into play until $51.50 and then roughly from $49.50 to $50.00.

The United States Oil Fund L.P. (NYSEMKT: USO) was last seen down 5.5% at $17.90, in a 52-week range of $15.61 to $38.42.

ALSO READ: 5 Oil and Gas Stocks Analysts Want You to Buy Now