XRP (CRYPTO: XRP) has finally broken above $1.35 after being rejected at that level at least three times since late March. The $1.35 level held as support through most of March but broke on March 27 when $14 billion in quarterly options expired, and since then every attempt to reclaim it has stalled. The only reason XRP didn’t go lower than $1.30 is that the $1.28 support held through each of those pullbacks without breaking.
The broader crypto market is now rallying after the macro conditions that were crushing the market improved. The U.S. and Iran war was the main reason oil prices stayed above $100 for over a month, and that put immense pressure on crypto and stocks. Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire proposal from Trump on April 7, and the market sentiment flipped overnight.
The XRP price has rallied above $1.35 and is now testing the $1.40 resistance. As the momentum builds, here are three factors that will determine if XRP fully recovers this time or pulls back.
1. The Iran War Has a Ceasefire and Could Finally End
The U.S. and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire on April 7 after Pakistan stepped in and brokered a deal between the two sides. Iran’s foreign minister confirmed Tehran would allow safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz, and both delegations are expected to meet in Islamabad this week for the first in-person peace talks since the war started on February 28. Oil prices dropped from above $110 to around $94 per barrel on the news.
However, the ceasefire is hanging by a thread due to Israel’s latest attack on Lebanon only hours after the deal was announced. This was Israel’s largest strike since the war began, killing over 200 people and injuring over a thousand more. Iran has responded by halting Strait of Hormuz traffic again and Trump has threatened to also begin shooting if Iran doesn’t comply.
Only five ships crossed the strait on day one of the ceasefire, and none of them were oil tankers—compared to the 110 to 150 ships that passed through daily before the war. Iran has also warned of sea mines in the main shipping lane, and oil has already bounced back to $97 as markets question whether the deal will hold.
An Iranian delegation is still expected in Islamabad for talks, but Iran has accused the U.S. of violating the ceasefire over Israel’s Lebanon strikes. If the talks happen this weekend and both sides agree to a resolution, the war could genuinely be coming to an end. But if they break down, the market goes right back to where it was. XRP’s hope of a sustained recovery above $1.35 depends heavily on this war reaching a settlement as soon as possible.
2. Ripple’s Infrastructure Can Finally Impact XRP’s Price
Ripple Treasury launched native XRP and RLUSD support on April 1, and for the first time, CFOs can hold and manage XRP alongside their cash in the same dashboard they already use for bank accounts. Until this launch, every dollar that moved through the platform was fiat only. The next features already in development are cross-border intercompany settlement and 24/7 yield on idle cash—both of which would require companies to actively use XRP.
Ripple’s On-Demand Liquidity is the one product that actually buys and sells XRP to settle cross-border payments. Ripple added 12 new ODL currency pairs at the XRP Tokyo conference this week, expanding into Southeast Asia where cross-border payment demand is growing at over 10% annually. Japanese financial institutions showed pilot results with cost reductions of up to 60% compared to SWIFT. Ripple Prime is also now live on the DTCC’s clearing system with a BBB issuer rating, which gives institutional clients a regulated path to settle trades on the XRP Ledger.
All of this infrastructure was built while the XRP price was falling. If the war ends and the CLARITY Act gives banks the legal cover they need, this is the plumbing that would turn Ripple’s growth into actual XRP demand for the first time.
3. The CLARITY Act Could Classify XRP as a Commodity Under Federal Law
The SEC and CFTC classified XRP as a digital commodity on March 17, but that classification is an interpretive release that a future administration could reverse with a memo. Banks and asset managers will not commit serious capital based on a regulatory opinion that could change, which is why institutional participation in XRP ETFs has declined.
The CLARITY Act is what would make the commodity classification permanent under federal law. The bill passing is what banks need before they will route payments through Ripple’s On-Demand Liquidity using XRP as a bridge asset.
The Senate returns from recess on April 13, and the Banking Committee markup is targeted for late April. The stablecoin yield dispute that stalled the bill twice has been nearly resolved, and people who saw the latest draft last week think a deal is close. Polymarket currently prices the odds of the bill passing at around 61%.
If the CLARITY Act advances through committee before May, it would unlock everything Ripple has been building to finally impact XRP. The Treasury platform, ODL, and the DTCC integration would all become tools that banks can legally use with XRP. But if it stalls again, XRP will go into the second half of 2026 without the regulatory clarity that institutional money needs to come in.
Can XRP Hold Above $1.35 or Is This Another Trap?
XRP has a better setup right now than at any point in 2026, but the real test is not $1.35. There are roughly 1.24 billion XRP tokens sitting in wallets with a cost basis between $1.45 and $1.47, and those holders have been underwater for months. Every rally this year has stalled in that zone as people sell to break even. If XRP can push through $1.45 with real buying behind it and absorb that selling, it would reach $1.60 and mark a genuine trend reversal. But if it stalls there again, none of the three factors would be enough.
The dates that matter are this weekend’s talks in Islamabad, the Senate returning on April 13, and the Banking Committee markup in late April. If the ceasefire holds and the CLARITY Act moves, April could be the month XRP finally recovers.
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