EIA Expects Oil Demand to Rise to 109.5 Million Barrels/Day by 2035

The US Energy Information Administration today published its Annual Energy Outlook for 2012, which includes the agency’s projections for energy use through 2035. The AEO, as its called, also includes projected energy use electricity and renewables, and an abundance of information on emissions, natural gas, and other issues related to US energy use.

A few highlights on demand for liquid fuels include:

• Global demand for liquids (oil, condensates, and natural gas liquids) will rise to 109.5 million barrels/day by 2035.
• OPEC’s share of liquids production will rise from 39.7% in 2010 to 41.9% in 2035. Production will rise by 10 million barrels/day, to 44.2 million barrels/day.
• OPEC’s Middle East members will increase production by 1.5% to offset declines in North and South America.
• Chinese demand will grow by 2.8% annually and reach 18.5 million barrels/day in 2035, while US demand will grow by 0.2% annually to a total of 20 million barrels/day.
• US domestic crude production will rise by more than 1 million barrels/day above 2010 levels by 2020 and crude oil equivalent production will rise by 1.2 million barrels/day by 2035, primarily by through the use of biofuels.
• The US will become a net exporter of natural gas, and domestic prices for natural gas will remain relatively low.
• The share of natural gas-fired electricity generation will rise from 24% in 2010 to 28% in 2035, and the renewables share will grow from 10% to 15%. Coal-fired generation will decline to 38% in 2035, down from 48% in 2008.
• Energy-related CO2 emissions will remain below 2005 levels through 2035.

The 240-page report assumes that US demand will not return to the levels seen in the 20 years prior to the 2008-2009 recession due to “more moderate” economic and populations growth coupled with improvements in energy efficiency.

The full report is available here.

Paul Ausick