US carbon emissions are expected to be 7% lower in 2020 than they were in 2005 according to the preliminary release of the US Energy Information Administration’s Annual Energy Outlook 2012. The reason for the decline is primarily a lower expected use of coal to generate electricity.
Overall, coal’s use as a fuel to generate electricity will fall from around 49% in 2007 to 39% by 2035. Natural gas-fired plants are forecast to generate 12% more electricity in 2012 than they did in 2011.
The diminishing role of coal in electricity generation is due to a combination of factors: demand for electricity is growing more slowly; increasing use of natural gas and renewables as generation fuels; and new, stricter regulation. The use of renewable fuels is expected to increase from about 10% today to 16% by 2035.
The Obama administration’s target of reducing carbon emissions by 17% from 2005 levels by 2020 does not appear to be achievable.
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