It turns out that each company is a little different, but each has value in and of its own right. The real trick is understanding that book value may in fact be extremely different from the real franchise value once you consider reserves.
We have evaluated each stock based on what shares have done and what they are expected to do ahead, and also included a brief book value synopsis. We have looked at dividends and the raw size of their market value. Also included are next year’s earnings valuations. It turns out that there is one clear winner in the hunt for value out of the three, and the race isn’t even close at current prices.
Exxon Mobil Corp. (NYSE: XOM) screens out as the highest of the book values, with a price-to-book value ratio of 2.43 to 1. That being said, it is also the largest as its market cap is $431.5 billion. Exxon Mobil’s forward price-to-earnings (P/E) is about 13.05. Exxon’s shares closed at $100.39 Tuesday, and the 52-week price range is $84.79 to $103.45. With a consensus target price of $100.72 from Thomson Reuters, Exxon has an implied upside of only about 0.3% — a concern. The real question for Exxon Mobil’s valuation is really cheaper than it looks when you factor in the $31 billion acquisition of XTO for its natural gas ownership. That hasn’t been a boost at all in the past five years, but the next decade may tell a different story entirely. Exxon’s dividend yield is roughly 2.8%.
Chevron Corp. (NYSE: CVX) comes with the lowest price-to-book ratio of the three at 1.54 to 1. Its market cap is $233.29 billion, and its forward P/E ratio is less than 11. Chevron shares closed at $122.55, and the 52-week trading range is $109.27 to $127.83. With a consensus target price of $131.40, Chevron has an implied upside of 7.2%. Chevron’s dividend yield is roughly 3.5%.
ConocoPhillips (NYSE: COP) posts a 1.83-to-1 price-to-book value ratio. Its market cap is now about $98 billion since its restructuring, making it the smallest company discussed here — if $98 billion can be considered “small” by any means. Its forward P/E is less than 13, putting it in between Chevron and Exxon. ConocoPhillips shares closed at $79.82, and the 52-week trading range is $58.71 to $80.55. With a consensus target price of $83.10, ConocoPhillips has an implied upside of 4.1%. Its dividend is also 3.5%.
After looking at all three major U.S. oil giants, it turns out that Chevron is currently way in the lead. Exxon Mobil has been chased up after Warren Buffett disclosed a large stake in the oil giant, but that may simply be because even the great Buffett can swing billions in and out of a $400+ billion market cap stock without creating too many waves. Chevron’s victory here is from P/E ratios, price-to-book ratios, dividends and implied upside.
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