If there is one major city in the United States that doesn’t want oil to remain at or under $50 per barrel for very long, it has to be Houston, Texas. Now that oil’s serious dive is becoming more of an expected case rather than a temporary shock, it turns out that the fallout has started to build momentum in the Houston economy. This might not be a surprise to many people around the nation, but the implication for what lies ahead is that the economic spillover has not yet been fully felt locally in Houston — nor in many of the energy-dependent cities and towns around the United States.

We are already seeing evidence that business, spending and hiring levels are starting to hit a tipping point in Houston and elsewhere. 24/7 Wall St. has created a montage of the most recent business developments in oil and gas from oil and gas companies and from outside industry and government sources. At the time of this writing, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil was trading at $47.21 per barrel.

A Dallas Federal Reserve report from earlier this week noted that Texas and other energy-dominant regions were starting see an impact from the big drop in oil prices. A Kansas City Fed report noted that about half of energy firms in its region see capital spending cuts of more than 20%, with several firms anticipating sizable layoffs. Also, a January 8 report from the Houston office of the Dallas branch of the Federal Reserve indicated that the economic picture was already softening in November — and energy prices were much higher in November. That report said:

The Houston Business-Cycle Index growth rate slowed to 6 percent in November from 7.4 percent in October. The oil and gas industry posted solid job gains in November, and refining and plastics continued to perform well. Lower oil prices and declines in drilling activity will likely take considerable steam out of the region’s economic engine in coming months. While prospects for the Houston region are more uncertain, the outlook is for positive, though weaker, growth.

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So, what about the big oil and gas players with exposure in Houston, the United States and even internationally?

Halliburton Co. (NYSE: HAL) had previously laid off 1,000 workers outside of the country in late 2014. Now multiple reports in recent days have pointed to unquantified layoffs taking place in Houston. All in all, Halliburton employs over 80,000 workers.

Apache Corp. (NYSE: APA) has now reportedly begun a 5% staff reduction. The Houston-based company appears to be laying off those workers outside of the country, but that is what Halliburton did with its first round of cuts. Apache employs more than 5,000 workers in total.

Lennar Corp. (NYSE: LEN), a nationwide homebuilder, showed with its most recent earnings that 2014 total sales in Houston were up to 768 units, versus 670 units in 2013. The gain was also seen in the fourth quarter in units and in total dollar values, at $206.38 million versus $185.96 million. Still, the average sale prices in 2014 were $269,000 per home versus $278,000 in 2013. Lennar was noted by The Wall Street Journal as saying that it expects a further reconciliation amid the oil slump, with a little pullback at the higher end.

Back in early December, ConocoPhillips (NYSE: COP) warned that it was going to cut capital spending by 20% in 2015. We have not yet seen whether this includes layoffs, but the company said that it would defer its significant investment in the emerging shale plays in the Permian Basin of Texas and elsewhere. Note that WTI oil was trading above $60 per barrel at that time.

Sanchez Energy Corp. (NYSE: SN), a Houston-based independent exploration and production player, which also has extensive exposure and operations in the Eagle Ford Shale region in Texas, announced a 60% cut to its capital spending in 2015.

UPDATE: Schlumberger Ltd. (NYSE: SLB) disclosed with its fourth quarter earnings that capex would be $3 billion in 2015, versus $4 billion in 2014. In response to lower commodity pricing and anticipated lower exploration and production, Schlumberger decided to reduce its overall headcount (to better align with anticipated activity levels for 2015) and it recorded a $296 million charge in the fourth quarter associated with a headcount reduction of approximately 9,000 versus its 120,000 or so global workers. Still, the oil field services giant announced a 25% dividend hike.

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Rigzone, a jobs website specific to the energy sector, was one of the first destinations we went to. The company’s media noted as recently as last July that hiring levels were set to rise but also that job candidates were getting choosier. Now, their report from January 13, 2015, showed that 44% of hiring managers see less hiring for the first half of 2015. More importantly, layoffs were said to now be more likely, with 36% of hiring managers saying they are likely, compared to 11% who said this in July. Rachel Ceccarelli, a Rigzone media contact, told us over the phone that local job listing numbers have not “yet” been impacted. Bob Melk, Rigzone’s president, said in the company’s latest news release:

The shift in outlook underscores how quickly companies are adjusting their plans to the current economy with many oil and gas firms bracing for what could be a difficult 2015. Companies are watching falling oil prices and putting a pause on some hiring plans as a result.

Platts reported on January 13 that the economics of the shale oil boom are becoming challenged. Platts indicated that the average internal rates of return for 24 major U.S. oil and gas plays have all sunk below 20%. It also indicated that internal rates of return have now gone negative for a small handful of predominantly dry gas plays.

Forbes pointed out that Professor Bill Gilmer from the Bauer College of Business at the University of Houston has warned that some 75,000 jobs could be lost in Houston. We looked at the older source material, and that was under the worse of two scenarios analyzed for 2015 to 2016.

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Jordan Blum of the Houston Business Journal recently wrote that widespread energy layoffs could continue in Houston. Blum also pointed to the warning from the most recent Rigzone survey.

The long and short of the matter is that Houston has a serious risk from lower oil prices. The good news, for now, is that this is nowhere close to what Texas went through in the 1980s. The bad news is that many of the older Houstonians who lived here and survived that difficult economic period of the 1980s have been puzzled by the number of speculative building projects with cranes and structures dotting the Houston skyline today — and those we have spoken with are generally quick to refer back to those dark times.

The Greater Houston Partnership has published its January 2015 economy at a glance. This report also asked if Houston will see a repeat of the 1980s. The good news: “Not likely. The region’s economy has matured since then. Factors that exacerbated the ’80s collapse are not present today. And there’s enough impetus from other sectors to support growth, albeit at a much slower pace than in recent years.”

It is still far too soon to predict whether this is any sort of prelude to what was seen in the 1980s in Houston and other energy dependent regions. Still, the exercise of initial layoffs should come with an old reminder: A recession is when your friend or neighbor loses their job; a depression is when you lose your job.

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One stark reminder is out there about the impact of an energy job versus other jobs. In December, the Greater Houston Partnership signaled in the 2015 Houston Employment forecast that the average annual compensation in Houston’s mining sector (mostly oil and gas related) was $185,000 in 2013, while compensation for all other industries averaged $64,500. Their translation: One energy job has the purchasing power of three non-energy jobs in Houston.

Another figure was mentioned here in the Partnership’s December release: The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis estimates that mining (almost all oil and gas extraction in Houston) accounted for $102.7 billion in Houston’s GDP in 2013, about 19.8% of the economy.

The Texas Workforce Commission’s report from December showed that Texas added 34,800 seasonally adjusted total nonfarm jobs in November and a total of 441,200 jobs added since the prior year. The report further showed that the Houston metro area has added 480,200 net new jobs since the bottom of the recession — more than three times the 153,800 jobs lost during the recession. Also in that November employment report, Houston reached a new high in jobs by passing the 2.95 million mark.

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