OPEC also has raised its forecast for 2016 global demand growth to 1.34 million barrels a day, with total demand expected to reach 93.94 million barrels a day.
The cartel reported as well that the average price of a barrel of oil from its reference basket fell by $1.95 a barrel in June, from $62.16 in May to $60.21. OPEC noted that money managers continued to cut net long positions in the futures market.
Total OPEC crude oil production in June averaged 31.38 million barrels a day, up 283,000 from May’s total. That is the highest monthly total so far in 2015 and well above the annual averages for 2013 and 2014. The total is based on non-OPEC estimates.
Total non-OPEC supply is forecast to average 57.69 million barrels a day in 2016, up 530,000 barrels a day compared with the cartel’s May forecast, while noting that the forecast is “associated with a high level of risk.” U.S. product is forecast to grow from an estimated total of 13.85 million barrels a day (including NGLs and other liquids) this year to an average of 14.18 million barrels a day in 2016.
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Total world oil supplies are now forecast at about 92.77 million barrels a day in 2015, about 150,000 barrels a day more than total demand. From a producer’s point of view, that is a welcome improvement over the recent oversupply totals of more than 1 million barrels a day.
The news Monday regarding a potential deal between Greece and its lenders has not overcome the possibility in traders’ minds that a nuclear deal will be struck with Iran, leading to the possibility that Iranian production could rise by nearly 2 million barrels a day.
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