Will Oilfield Services Revive Next Year?

No sector of the energy business has been harder than the oilfield services companies since the price of crude started its collapse in the fall of 2014. These companies were hit not only by a decline in rig counts and drilling, but what business they were able to drum up was heavily discounted.

The research team at Rystad Energy said on Tuesday that the downturn in the oilfield services business was the worst since the 1980s. Average service purchases fell by about 19% year over year, and Rystad expects the downturn to expand by 9% in 2016.

The top performing oilfield services company in 2015 was Paris-based Technip, the only one of 20 companies in Rystad’s review to grow revenues last year. Oslo-based Aker Solutions posted the smallest revenue decline. Both companies benefited from currency effects and from substantial backlogs for their subsea and full offering of engineering, procurement, construction and installation services.

The companies that did worse were those with more exposure to the swings of commodity prices and well services. These would include such U.S.-based giants as Schlumberger Ltd. (NYSE: SLB), Halliburton Co. (NYSE: HAL) and Baker Hughes Inc. (NYSE: BHI). Other service companies that were hit hard were the seismic explorers like Paris-based CGG (NYSE: CGG) and Oslo-based PGS, both of which saw revenues fall more than 30%.
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Here are Rystad’s comments on the services business in 2015:

Companies exposed to Well Service and Commodities – such as Baker Hughes and Halliburton – fared worse. The cut in shale activities in North America had a large impact on these companies due to the high well service intensity for shale developments. The decline will start to taper off as most of the price deflation and activity cuts are already taken out. Schlumberger fared slightly better due to their more international footprint. Seismic companies such as CGG and PGS were also heavily affected due to the total collapse in seismic purchases.

With crude oil prices predicted to rise very slowly on their way to around $50 by this time next year, 2016 looks like it could be another tough year for the services firms. But as we noted earlier in December, analysts at UBS maintain Buy ratings on Baker Hughes, Halliburton, Schlumberger, and Weatherford International PLC (NYSE: WFT). All have lost between about 15% and 30% of their share prices since the beginning of 2015, and UBS appears to look at them all as value plays at their current prices.

If Rystad is right, though, investors may have to wait longer than they might like:

Rystad Energy does not believe the recovery of the oilfield service industry will occur in 2016; we need to wait until 2017. E&P companies are still cutting costs and for many service companies 2016 will be even worse than 2015.

The researchers expect more cost cutting and layoffs, new alliances and collaborations, more mergers and acquisitions, and more pricing battles as service firms try to lock-in multiyear agreements with exploration and production companies.