Is Oil or Natural Gas Driving Chesapeake Stock?

Shares of beleaguered Chesapeake Energy Corp. (NYSE: CHK) traded up nearly 8% late Monday morning, and the rise in crude oil prices probably will get most of the credit. In fact, the outlook for natural gas prices is likely a more important driver.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude for July delivery traded at around $49.70 Monday morning. The January 2017 forward traded at $51.71 and the June 2017 forward traded at $52.18. Based on Friday’s closing price of $48.62, WTI for July delivery is up 2.2%, up nearly 6.4% for January delivery, and up 7.3% for June 2017 delivery.

Natural gas for July delivery settled at $2.40 on Friday and traded at around $2.43 in the late morning on Monday. Gas for January 2017 delivery traded at $3.16 and June 2017 gas traded at $2.91. July natural gas traded up about 1.3%, January gas traded up a whopping 32% and June 2017 natural gas traded up an impressive 21%.

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In the first quarter of 2016 Chesapeake produced 61 million barrels of oil equivalent, of which just 9 million were crude oil and only 6 million were natural gas liquids (NGLs). But prices were so depressed on natural gas compared with the first quarter of 2015 that many people have forgotten that Chesapeake even produces gas.

In the first quarter of 2015, Chesapeake’s realized price for gas was $3.67 per thousand cubic feet, compared with just $2.29 in the first quarter of this year. Natural gas prices are not currently bid any higher than about $3.30 per thousand cubic feet in February of 2018.

But what matters for Chesapeake is that it will see improved pricing on natural gas through the fall and winter of 2016 and 2017, and the steps that the company has taken so far this year to sell assets, reduce debt and refinance borrowing are very likely to pay off next year.

Chesapeake’s forward price-equity ratio out to December 2017 is 11.45. Exxon Mobil’s is 20.46.

Based on Friday’s closing price of $4.09, the implied gain for Chesapeake using a consensus price target of $4.55 is 11.2% compared with Exxon’s more than fairly valued stock based on Friday’s closing price of $88.37 and a consensus price target of $85.16.

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Chesapeake still has a long way to go before its turnaround is complete, but the company bet earlier this year that it would get some help on pricing for both oil and gas, and that now looks like a smart bet.

Chesapeake’s stock traded at $4.38 just after noon on Monday, up about 7%, in a 52-week range of $1.50 to $13.45.