Americans Are Driving This Summer Instead of Flying: 4 Stocks Could Be Big Winners

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By Lee Jackson Published
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Americans Are Driving This Summer Instead of Flying: 4 Stocks Could Be Big Winners

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Summertime always means one thing in the United States: summer vacation. This year is profoundly different around the nation due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Many Americans are afraid to get on an airplane, and with good reason given what we have experienced over the past six months. That lack of flying is adding up to a ton of driving.

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In a new research report, Jefferies has seen the numbers that American car drivers are putting up, especially with the price of gasoline still very reasonable in most states. The firm feels that there is some outstanding opportunity for investors looking to take advantage of the travel discrepancies and differences this summer. They noted this in the report:

Demand for gasoline has steadily rebounded, and meaningfully accelerated in recent weeks as states have reopened, vacationers have taken to the highways, and travelers have displayed a preference for driving vs. flying; in the Energy Information Agency’s last reading, gasoline demand was down just 6% year-over-year We adjust our forecasts for better expected second quarter operating rates, weaker cracks & muted capture; however, our second half market structure (demand-driven operating rate improvement checked by distillate inventory) is unchanged and supported by EIA data. Following sharp share price declines from June highs and with improving cracks, demand, and inventories, we upgrade four companies to Buy.

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All four of the following stocks make sense for those looking for energy exposure but who remain wary of exploration and production companies.

Holly Energy Partners

This limited partnership owned by HollyFrontier, and it is a solid dividend play. Holly Energy Partners L.P. (NYSE: HEP) owns and operates petroleum product and crude pipelines, storage tanks, distribution terminals, loading rack facilities and refinery processing units that support the refining and marketing operations of HollyFrontier in West Texas, New Mexico, Utah, Nevada, Oklahoma, Wyoming, Kansas, Arizona, Idaho and Washington.

The company’s refined product pipelines transport conventional gasolines, reformulated gasolines and low-octane gasolines for oxygenate blending, as well as distillates, such as high- and low-sulfur diesel and jet fuels and liquefied petroleum gases. Its intermediate product pipelines transport intermediate feedstocks and crude oils; and its oil trunk, gathering and connection pipelines deliver crude oil.

Holly operates 26 main pipelines; crude gathering networks; 10 refined product terminals; a crude terminal; 31,800 track feet of rail storage; seven locations with truck or rail racks; and tankages at six refining facility locations, as well as five refinery processing units.

Holders of Holly Energy Partners stock receive an outstanding 10.46% distribution, which appears safe for now. The Jefferies analysts have a $17 price target on the shares, which compares with a higher $18 Wall Street consensus target, as well as Monday’s close at $13.38 per share.

Phillips 66

This extremely diversified energy company has a long and successful operating history. Phillips 66 (NYSE: PSX | PSX Price Prediction) operates through four segments: Midstream, Chemicals, Refining, and Marketing and Specialties. The company holds many of these assets within its master limited partnership, Phillips 66 Partners.

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Phillips 66 is able to benefit from the tax-advantaged structure while still operating a more diversified operating business that also contains many assets that aren’t ideal master limited partnership assets, such as its fast-growing chemical manufacturing business and its super-profitable refined products marketing business. Note that this company has one of the highest paid CEOs in America.

Investors receive a very solid 5.78% dividend. The Jefferies price target is $73, but the consensus target is higher at $84.56. Phillips 66 stock closed Monday’s trading at $62.33 a share.

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Phillips 66 Partners

This is another top pick at Jefferies and may be one of the best total return plays for investors. Phillips 66 Partners L.P. (NYSE: PSXP) is a growth-oriented master limited partnership formed by Phillips 66 to own, operate, develop and acquire primarily fee-based crude oil, refined petroleum product and natural gas liquids pipelines and terminals and other transportation and midstream assets.

The recent court ruling against the Dakota Access Pipeline hit the shares hard, and that could be offering investors an incredible entry point now. While the company’s distribution coverage by free cash flow could remain very weak in 2020, most Wall Street analysts feel comfortable with the shares. One big reason is that the company’s leverage is very moderate and should be able to handle the $631 million burden from a negative outcome from the Dakota Access Pipeline.

Shareholders receive a stunning 11.56% distribution, which also appears to be safe for now. The $36 Jefferies price objective is lower than the $45.36 consensus target price. Phillips 66 Partners stock closed most recently at $30.02 per share.

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Valero Energy

This Wall Street favorite is a very solid energy play for more conservative balanced accounts. Valero Energy Corp. (NYSE: VLO) is one of the largest independent petroleum refining and marketing companies in the United States. It is based in San Antonio, Texas; owns 13 refineries in the United States, Canada and Europe; and has a total throughput capacity of around 2.5 million barrels per day.

Valero also is a joint venture partner in Diamond Green Diesel, which operates a renewable diesel plant in Norco, Louisiana. Diamond Green Diesel is North America’s largest biomass-based diesel plant.

Valero sells its products in the wholesale rack or bulk markets in the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom, Ireland and Latin America. Approximately 7,400 outlets carry Valero’s brand names.

Investors receive an outstanding 7.22% dividend. Jefferies has set a price target of $62. The other analysts again have set the consensus target higher at $73.17. Valero Energy stock was last seen trading at $54.33 a share.

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These four top stocks have been absolutely crushed since June. They all pay solid dependable dividends, which again, at least for now, look safe and offer investors a way to play the energy sector with a much lower risk profile. For investors looking for growth and income, these may be outstanding portfolio additions.

Photo of Lee Jackson
About the Author Lee Jackson →

Lee Jackson has covered Wall Street analysts' equity and debt research and equity strategy daily for 24/7 Wall St. since 2012. His broad and diverse career, which included a stint as the creative services director at the NBC affiliate in Austin, Texas, gives him unique insight into the financial industry and world.

Lee Jackson's journey in the financial industry spans over 30 years, with nearly two decades as an institutional equity salesperson at Bear Stearns, Lehman Brothers, and Morgan Stanley. His career was marked by his presence on the sell side during pivotal Wall Street events, from the dot.com rise and bubble to the Long Term Capital Management debacle, 9/11, and the Great Recession of 2008. This is a testament to his resilience and adaptability in the face of market volatility.

Lee Jackson’s practical financial industry experience, acquired from a career at some of the biggest banks and brokerage firms, is complemented by a lifetime of writing on various platforms. This unique combination allows him to shed light on the intricacies and workings of Wall Street in a way that only someone with deep insider experience and knowledge can. Moreover, his extensive network across Wall Street continues to provide direct access for him and 24/7 Wall St., a privilege few firms enjoy.

Since 2012, Jackson’s work for 24/7 Wall St. has been featured in Barron’s, Yahoo Finance, MarketWatch, Business Insider, TradingView, Real Money, The Street, Seeking Alpha, Benzinga, and other media outlets. He attended the prestigious Cranbrook Schools in Bloomfield Hills, Michigan, and has a degree in broadcasting from the Specs Howard School of Media Arts.

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