After the National Association of Realtors and almost every economic forecaster in the world has said the housing in is a slump and will stay there, the home building industry has caught on. Executives from Toll Brothers (TOLL), Beazer (BZH), Hovnanian (HOV), Pulte (PHM), Meritage (MTH), and Lennar (LEN) got together at a conference to discuss their problems.
Industry executives are saying the market has not found a bottom even through their companies have been revising down expectations for months. Toll Brothers has even gone so far as to say that "No one knows where the bottoms is"
The group indicated that private equity interests have been looking at the industry for some time. Given the amount of capital in the market, it is telling that none of the companies have been taken private.
Odd then that Freddie Mac is saying that the housing recession is about two-third over and that it will begin to improve by mid-2007. The forecast is simply whistling past the graveyard.
Douglas A. McIntyre can be reached at [email protected]. He does not own securities in companies that he writes about.
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