In 2014 Caterpillar shares finished the year up around 3.5%, after posting a high in July that was 24% above the stock’s level on January 2. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, which includes Caterpillar, rose 7.5% in 2014, so the company’s performance could certainly be described as underwhelming. The damage came from falling crude oil prices, an even bigger drop in demand for mining production and a strengthening U.S. dollar.
Investors should already have learned to expect to hear that dealer sales figures are weak. This should act to drag down 2015 guidance, with the U.S. dollar strength hurting orders in many growth markets.
If prices for iron ore, coal, gold, silver and any other basic material would improve, Caterpillar’s outlook would tag along. More stable currencies outside the United States would also improve the company’s fortunes.
Merrill Lynch, which only rates Caterpillar stock with a Neutral rating and $95 price objective, said in its preview:
Caterpillar issued 3-month trailing retail sales figures. The -12% number for Machines, the lowest in 6 months, suggests weak trends. While fourth quarter results may be strong, we expect Caterpillar’s 2015 guidance to be cut on low end-user demand, weak mining, and lower oil prices. Key positive: Power generation up 22%, the strongest growth since 2012. Key negative: North American construction continues to decelerate.
The stock closed on Friday at $85.61, compared with a consensus estimate of $97.10 from 21 analysts, for a potential upside gain of more than 13%. The stock’s forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is 12.85 and the price-to-book ratio is a rich 2.75. Short interest in the stock is rising again, at about 4.2% of the company’s float.
Shares traded at $85.86 in the early afternoon on Monday, within a 52-week trading range of $83.05 to $111.46. Caterpillar has a market cap of around $52 billion.
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