Caterpillar Earnings Look Good Because Expectations Were So Low

For the full year, Caterpillar posted EPS of $5.75 on revenues of $55.66 billion, compared with consensus estimates calling for EPS of $5.49 on revenues of $54.86 billion. Revenues fell more than $10 billion year-over-year and EPS was down nearly a third.

Caterpillar reaffirmed its previous guidance that 2014 sales will be flat, at around $56 billion plus or minus 5%. Excluding restructuring costs, 2014 EPS is estimated at $5.85. The company expects sales to improve in its construction and power systems segments and to weaken somewhat in its mining equipment segment.

The company’s CEO said:

Cost flexibility is critical to our strategy and was a significant focus in 2013 as we took substantial actions to help maintain profitability as sales declined. Excluding the impact of cost absorption our manufacturing costs and SG&A and R&D expenses were favorable by $1.2 billion compared with 2012. It wasn’t easy, especially for our employees who endured an incredibly tough year, but the actions we initiated helped us deliver strong operational performance in 2013.

While Caterpillar’s earnings beat is sure to send the share price higher Monday, it should be kept in mind that the full-year revenue estimate was cut by up to $3 billion when the company reported third-quarter results, and the EPS estimate was cut by a $1 a share at the same time. And that was below the company’s original forecast for 2013 calling for EPS of $7.00 on revenues of $57 to $61 billion.

The company expects to buy back $1.7 billion worth of shares in the first quarter of 2014, closing out Caterpillar’s existing $7.5 billion share repurchase program. A new $10 billion buyback program expiring in 2018 has been approved by the board of directors.

Caterpillar shares were up more than 6% in premarket trading, at $91.53 in a 52-week range of $79.49 to $99.70. Thomson Reuters had a consensus analyst price target of around $92.80 before the report.