Autodesk Up and On Auto Pilot

Autodesk (ADSK) just reported record quarter revenues of $457 million, just under the $457.25 million consensus estimate. It is not providing EPS because of the ongoing options review. ADSK closed up 1% at $27.00 in normal trading, but shares are up 6.4% to $39.35 in after-hours trading. The subscription revenues seem to be the game winner as the guidance seems in-line (although guidance may be conservative because of legal ramifications). ADSK 52-week trading range is $29.56 to $47.25.There was a huge bright spot in what may be considered a slight beat with in-line guidance. Its subscription (recurring) revenues have now grown to $111 million, about 24% of revenues, and up 50% from last year. That is an impressive feat and has been one of the growth drivers to the company.Total backlog was $352 million as of October 31, 2006, including $333 million of deferred revenues. Deferred subscription revenues increased $12 million sequentially to $275 million and there was $19 million of unshipped product orders at quarter end. Its DSO (days sales outstanding, or days to get paid!) also fell 1 day to 51 days.There is also guidance (compared to street estimates) where available. Next quarter guidance: Net revenues for the fourth quarter of fiscal 2007 are expected to be between $490 million and $500 million ($495M estimate); following quarter guidance: Net revenues for the first quarter of fiscal 2008 are expected to be approximately flat with the fourth quarter of fiscal 2007. Fiscal 2007 guidance: For fiscal year 2007, net revenues are expected to be between $1.832 billion and $1.842 billion ($1.84B estimate). Fiscal 2008 guidance: For fiscal year 2008, net revenues are expected to be between $2.075 billion and $2.125 billion ($2.10 Billion estimates).Jon C. OggNovember 16, 2006