Autodesk Must Run on Auto-Pilot (ADSK)

Autodesk (ADSK-NASDAQ) posted revenues of $509 million versus $499.9 million estimates.

GUIDANCE: Net revenues for the second quarter of fiscal 2008 are expected to be in the range of $520 million to $530 million. Non-GAAP operating margins for the second quarter of fiscal 2008 are expected to be in the range of 24.5 to 25.4 percent.  The current revenue estimate is $512.8 million, so that is 1.75-3.75% higher.

For fiscal year 2008, net revenues are expected to be between $2.115 billion and $2.150 billion. Non-GAAP operating margins for fiscal year 2008 are expected to be in the range of 27 to 27.5 percent.  The consensus estimate is $2.12 billion, so this actually within the range if the company isn’t just trying to be conservative.

The company ended with a $186 million cash increase to $964 million, channel inventory was below the normal 4 to 4 weeks, and days sales outstanding fell to 47 days.  Its results were driven by strong increases in revenue from model-based 3D design products, maintenance revenue from subscription, revenue in the emerging economies, and revenue from new seats.

The company is not showing formal EPS and EPS guidance because of their stock options review, but at least they showed the bulk of the other data and showed that business is growing.  Shares closed down 1% at $43.30, but shares are back up 3% from the close to $44.60 in after-hours trading.  Its 52-week trading range is $29.56 to $45.19.  Shares are within about 10% of most Buy targets, so we’ll have to see how the analysts rate the stock in the morning for a last direction.

Jon C. Ogg
May 17, 2007

Jon Ogg can be reached at [email protected]; he does not own securities in the companies he covers.