Hurricane season matters to investors. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, or NOAA, is calling for an above-average hurricane season in 2011.
NOAA noted, “The Atlantic basin is expected to see an above-normal hurricane season this year. The six-month hurricane season begins on June 1, 2011 and NOAA sees 12 to 18 named storms this year with winds of 39 miles per hour or higher.
The prediction is that 6 to 10 of these named storms could become hurricanes with winds of 74 miles per hour or more. Of the 6 to 10 that could become hurricanes, 3 to 6 of these hurricanes could become major hurricanes in a category 3, 4 or 5 with winds of 111 miles per hour.
NOAA further noted that “Each of these ranges has a 70 percent likelihood, and indicate that activity will exceed the seasonal average of 11 named storms, six hurricanes and two major hurricanes.”
The luck of the winds in 2010 cannot be counted on this year. Sea-surface temperatures in the Atlantic are already as much as two degrees Fahrenheit compared with 2010 and are warmer than average.
We would note that these predictions can change radically throughout each season. We have been lucky in recent years. Hopefully, we will be lucky again this year.
JON C. OGG
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