Gold prices have risen 11% in January, closing today at $1,738.10/ounce. The yellow metal has been gaining strength as the euro makes a comeback against the dollar and as WTI crude oil prices hang around $100/barrel even while most traders expect crude prices to rise.
The tie between the euro and gold is a foil to the US dollar as a safe haven. If the euro rises, investors are happy to buy gold and leave the dollar. When the dollar gains strength, its status as a safe haven takes some of the shine out of gold.
WTI crude prices have hovered around $100/barrel for six weeks or so. The price of Brent, though, has come up from around $102/barrel in mid-December to around $111/barrel today. If there is any major threat to supply, look for Brent to open up a larger differential to WTI.
Both the dollar-euro index and the price of crude are worth watching for hints at what gold is like to be doing.
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