TS Debby Moves From Oil Threat To Unpredictable

Tropical Storm Debby is either a schizophrenic storm or the weatherman just cannot get it right under any circumstances.  The projected landfall area has now effectively taken up almost the entire coastal area of the Gulf of Mexico.  Is this the storm being unpredictable, or is this a horrible job from the weatherman? Or is it both?

Over the weekend and late last week came reports that a potential storm system was heading into the Gulf and needed to be watched.  On Sunday morning the early bird forecast was registering as “Tropical Storm Debby” and the path was put westward which could have strafed the entire Gulf of Mexico offshore oil complex south of Louisiana all the way into Texas.  By mid-Sunday, the projection had moved to an almost due north rather than westward off the Louisiana coast.  Monday morning’s early update showed the path to then be one which was headed straight for the Florida panhandle up into the area around the Alabama and Georgia border.  That was then… Now we have Tropical Storm Debby heading Northeast with landfall in Florida on Thursday followed by an eastward trajectory that likely implies a return into the Atlantic Ocean.

Some oil platforms in the Gulf of Mexico have been evacuated in some cases or have been left with only critical personnel.  The good news is that as it stands now it seems more and more likely that Tropical Storm Debby is not an immediate threat to most of the Gulf offshore oil infrastructure.  The bad news is that the direction is now not just more than 90-degrees off.  It is almost 180-degrees off course.

When you see storms like this you have to wonder if computer modelling from weather agencies offers any value at all.  Here is the most current trajectory cone provide by NOAA.

JON C. OGG