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Greece Exit from Euro at 90%

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By Douglas A. McIntyre Updated Published
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A senior economist at Citigroup, Willem Buiter, wrote a report in which he argues that there is a 90% chance that Greece will leave the eurozone over the next year to year-and-a-half. Among his observations:

We now believe the probability that Greece will leave EMU in the next 12–18 months is about 90 percent, up from our previous 50–75 percent estimate, and believe the most likely date is in the next 2–3 quarters.

Inspectors from the European Union, European Central Bank and International Monetary Fund will plow through Greece’s books during the next several days. Most experts on Greek finances believe they will find that the nation’s gross domestic product has dropped more quickly than forecast by the government, that its deficit has widened faster and that expenses have not been cut to the levels of austerity agreed upon. If these things are true, Greece may be pushed out before it can decide to leave.

Douglas A. McIntyre

Photo of Douglas A. McIntyre
About the Author Douglas A. McIntyre →

Douglas A. McIntyre is the co-founder, chief executive officer and editor in chief of 24/7 Wall St. and 24/7 Tempo. He has held these jobs since 2006.

McIntyre has written thousands of articles for 24/7 Wall St. He is an expert on corporate finance, the automotive industry, media companies and international finance. He has edited articles on national demographics, sports, personal income and travel.

His work has been quoted or mentioned in The New York Times, The Wall Street Journal, Los Angeles Times, The Washington Post, NBC News, Time, The New Yorker, HuffPost USA Today, Business Insider, Yahoo, AOL, MarketWatch, The Atlantic, Bloomberg, New York Post, Chicago Tribune, Forbes, The Guardian and many other major publications. McIntyre has been a guest on CNBC, the BBC and television and radio stations across the country.

A magna cum laude graduate of Harvard College, McIntyre also was president of The Harvard Advocate. Founded in 1866, the Advocate is the oldest college publication in the United States.

TheStreet.com, Comps.com and Edgar Online are some of the public companies for which McIntyre served on the board of directors. He was a Vicinity Corporation board member when the company was sold to Microsoft in 2002. He served on the audit committees of some of these companies.

McIntyre has been the CEO of FutureSource, a provider of trading terminals and news to commodities and futures traders. He was president of Switchboard, the online phone directory company. He served as chairman and CEO of On2 Technologies, the video compression company that provided video compression software for Adobe’s Flash. Google bought On2 in 2009.

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